![Joe Burrow Kelce]()
You can almost taste the tailgate food now that the 2024 NFL season is closing in. With sports betting taking off nationwide, it's worth diving into some of the future markets, and in this piece, we'll look at a good chunk of the league and assess many of their Over/Under regular-season team win totals.
We'll dive into the teams whose lines I feel most confident in, where there could be some hidden value, and even get bold on several of these. But as is the case with any life situation, it's useful to toss up red (yellow?) flags in advance for some teams who I just feel too conflicted about to think of wagering on. Alrighty then, let's get rolling...
*NFL total wins future lines courtesy of DraftKings; alternate lines via bet365 are specifically noted.
Top NFL Team Wins Future Bets:
- Seattle Seahawks Over 7.5 (-150) / Over 8.5 (+140 at bet365)
- Las Vegas Raiders Under 6.5 (+110)
- Minnesota Vikings Under 6.5 (+120) / Under 5.5 (+180)
That "fool me once, shame on me; fool me twice, shame on you" really applies here. I mindlessly hopped on the Brandon Staley bandwagon several years ago, thinking he'd be the next innovative, wizard defensive coordinator to be a great head coach. Hard nope. See, I'm being vulnerable here and admitting to a freezing-cold take. Why did I set that up? Because I don't think I'll be burned again by ex-Ravens DC and new Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald, whose Baltimore D shut out
Patrick Mahomes' Chiefs in the second half of the AFC Championship Game.
https://twitter.com/TheHonestNFL/status/1752690283806855502
https://twitter.com/SeattleONTap/status/1822015292505210942
https://twitter.com/FB_FilmAnalysis/status/1722048011080016337
Seahawks QB Geno Smith will to benefit a lot from the upgrades Seattle made in the offensive trenches between rookie Christian Haynes and elite center Connor Williams, who
says he's 95% healthy coming off a torn ACL as of last week and in line to be ready for the regular-season opener. Haynes is a third-rounder out of UConn who's already working with the starters; Williams can hold up mano-a-mano with Chris Jones.
https://twitter.com/bcondotta/status/1824137610291200122
https://twitter.com/new_era72/status/1824612236658180575
You can also get the Seahawks' Over 9.5 at +190 on DraftKings if you want. Kind of bold in an NFC West with the Rams and 49ers, hence the greater risk-reward. Nevertheless, Macdonald should transform Seattle's defense — and bear in mind,
the 2023 Seahawks went 9-8 while ranking 30th in total yards allowed.
https://twitter.com/The33rdTeamFB/status/1752761791309054107
Speaking of difficult divisions, I think the NFC North's trio of the Lions, Packers and Bears will beat each other to a pulp, while the Vikings will struggle to win a single division game. They're starting Sam Darnold at quarterback. Their roster is beset by myriad problems. It could get ugly in Minnesota now that JJ McCarthy is out for the season.
https://twitter.com/SharpFootball/status/1823807813938024497
Then you have the poor Las Vegas Raiders. Solid defense. Great superstars like Maxx Crosby and Davante Adams. I just don't see how Gardner Minshew guides that Luke Getsy-coached offense to seven or more wins.
Getsy was the much-maligned Bears offensive coordinator for Justin Fields. Is he really gonna look much better with Minshew under center? Doubtful.
2nd Tier of Most Confidence:
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers Over 7.5 (-150) / Over 8.5 (+140 at bet365)
- Carolina Panthers Under 5.5 (-105) / 4.5 (+210 at bet 365)
- Arizona Cardinals Under 6.5 (+130) / 5.5 (+220)
The NFC South is a puzzler. All the hype is around the Atlanta Falcons as favorites, yet after the team held out rookie QB Michael Penix Jr. from their second preseason game, I have to wonder if Kirk Cousins is on track to be ready for Week 1 off that torn Achilles. Is it fair to assume there'll be some rust early on? I suspect so. Say Captain Kirk goes out there and struggles for the first month, with top-10 pick Penix waiting in the wings. Sh*t could get weird real quick. That said, I still like them as a playoff contender. Not certain they'll make it.
I'm
most confident in the Tampa Bay Buccaneers from that weird division. They're the reigning champs. They gave the Lions all they could handle in the Divisional Round of the playoffs. This, by the way, with easily the worst rushing offense in the NFL. Baker Mayfield tied Trevor Lawrence and Desmond Ridder with
26 turnover-worthy plays in 2023, per PFF. Baker got a little fortunate to throw only 10 interceptions against 28 touchdowns. I think that's less a product of all-out recklessness and more Baker pressing amid obvious passing situations with such a one-dimensional offense.
Those last couple lines are a red flag to some. However, the Bucs addressed their porous interior o-line by drafting Duke's Graham Barton in the first round. Their running game can't possibly get worse with tailback Bucky Irving joining the backfield, too.
https://twitter.com/jagibbs_23/status/1825218820505743550
Their defense will benefit from adding rookie second-rounder Chris Braswell on the edge after his eight-sack final season at Alabama.
https://twitter.com/JennaLaineESPN/status/1824156280065495157
Tampa going 8-9 or 9-8 given how much of a mess the rest of the NFC South is seems pretty safe, no?
On the other hand, the Panthers still have a lengthy rebuild ahead. Pint-sized QB Bryce Young is learning a whole new offense. Their secondary, particularly at cornerback, is not so good. There's a strong chance that they'll be heavy underdogs in six of their last seven games. They face many of their "easier" early opponents on the road (Broncos, Raiders and Commanders). It's just not looking good.
I fear that the Arizona Cardinals are in a similar boat, albeit with a much more dynamic, diminutive field general. No question Kyler Murray has a lot of weapons to work with, headlined by rookie phenom Marvin Harrison Jr. The NFC West is just so brutal. If the Seahawks are as formidable as I expect, Arizona has them
and the Rams and 49ers accounting for six of their 17 games, where a best-case scenario is to go, like, 2-4. They face Seattle twice after a Week 11 bye, along with the Vikings and Panthers (both away), and the Patriots at home in Week 15. Alas, they finish at the Rams and home for the Niners. Tough sledding!
Sneaky Value:
- Baltimore Ravens Over 10.5 (-110)
- Indianapolis Colts Over 8.5 (-105) / Over 9.5 (+175)
Lamar Jackson is 58-19 as a regular-season starter, which averages out to 12.75 wins per 17 games. That'd be an Over 12.5 hit, which is +285 at DraftKings if you're feeling
really frisky. Even if you buy into the Ravens regression narrative, they'd still need to underachieve by almost three whole wins relative to Lamar's career to go Under 10.5 wins.
Fade Lamar all you want in the playoffs. I'll be right there with you. As long as he's healthy in the regular season, whatever else is going on around him, it's hard to envision Baltimore slipping below 10 wins. We have years of data on this. He's already a two-time MVP. Sometimes it's just that simple.
Meanwhile, the Colts were a play or two away from beating the Houston Texans for the AFC South crown last season. Anthony Richardson missed almost the entire year, thrusting Gardner Minshew into starting QB duties. They still went 9-8. Indy picked up wideout AD Mitchell and pass-rusher Laiatu Latu in the draft. Jonathan Taylor's contract situation is settled. I shudder at their cornerbacks behind Kenny Moore and JuJu Brents, but the Colts' d-line is so stacked that it may not matter.
You also must consider how much upside Richardson still has to explore. less than a handful of NFL games under his belt. Only one full season as a college starter at Florida. Apparently an elite-level football IQ to go with his mind-boggling athleticism.
https://twitter.com/JayVeeThree/status/1646165552891678721
Colts head coach Shane Steichen is one of the best play-callers in the business and perhaps the most underrated. I think it's reasonable to expect Indy to reach 9-8 again, if not improve a little more. Steichen saying Richardson is the most physically gifted QB he's been around is quite something. This is the man who dialed up plays during Justin Herbert's historic rookie campaign.
https://twitter.com/UpAndAdamsShow/status/1823383195615945079
https://twitter.com/heykayadams/status/1823711631005900973
Fortune Favors The Bold:
- Cincinnati Bengals Over 10.5 (-125) / Over 11.5 (+155)
- Los Angeles Rams Over 8.5 (-160) / Over 9.5 (+160 at bet365)
The two Super Bowl LVI combatants are probably my favorite Over plays if you have to go past standard-line vig. At that point, I'd rather go in for a penny, in for a pound, and just hop up to the extra win for each of them at plus-money.
Funnily enough, everyone left the Rams for dead when the bottom fell out from their Super Bowl run, as they struggled to a 5-12 mark in 2022. They roared back last year with a super-young defense, a resurgent Matthew Stafford, and a reinvigorated coach in Sean McVay. In five of his seven seasons, McVay has won 10+ games.
Despite Aaron Donald's retirement, I still like LA's defensive personnel, thanks in part to
a top-flight rookie class headed by ex-Florida State teammates
Jared Verse and Braden Fiske in the defensive trenches.
https://twitter.com/camdasilva/status/1824964486597337290
Combine those elements with a brand-new guard duo of Jonah Jackson and Kevin Dotson to pound the rock with Kyren Williams and Blake Corum, and the Rams are cooking with gas.
Regarding the Bengals, they went through so much nonsense in '23, had an abysmal 31st-ranked defense, lost Joe Burrow for much of the season...and somehow finished 9-8 with a brutal schedule. Expecting a two- or three-win jump isn't unreasonable at all to me.
https://twitter.com/SharpFootball/status/1821580549401837588
Stay Away:
- New Orleans Saints O/U 8.5
- Denver Broncos O/U 5.5
- Pittsburgh Steelers O/U 8.5
- San Francisco 49ers O/U 11.5
As Admiral Akbar famously said in
Return of the Jedi, "It's a trap!" I feel these words deeply when it comes to the 2024 Denver Broncos and Pittsburgh Steelers, aka The Russell Wilson Inflection Point.
The Broncos kicked Russ to the curb and
ate $85 million in dead money to do it. They drafted Bo Nix with the 12th overall pick to replace him. Despite a "meh" roster — without looking, name one defensive player other than Pat Surtain II — and middling quarterback play from Mr. Unlimited, Sean Payton's first season in Denver resulted in an 8-9 record. Why would the Broncos backslide so much this year? Why is the line so freaking low? Is it only because Jim Harbaugh took over the Chargers?
Another cliché may apply here: Don't look a gift horse in the mouth. My head says to hammer the Over 5.5 on Denver. My gut says there's something very, very fishy about that line.
Almost too obvious, too, is the Steelers' 8.5 line. Why is it set there? Because the Over means Pittsburgh goes at least 9-8, thus preserving head coach Mike Tomlin's dubious honor of never having a single-season losing record. Their defense is nasty. I just wonder what they think they'll get from Russ or Justin Fields as their starting QB. Tomlin has made lemonade out of lemons at the most important position on the field for much of his career. Anyone from the animated football corpse of Ben Roethlisberger to Duck Hodges. I think this is a house of cards, with Russ (and/or eventually Fields) serving as the catalyzing inflection point that finally results in a Steelers collapse.
https://twitter.com/ImDavidSisneros/status/1825209863020191893
https://twitter.com/NFL_DougFarrar/status/1825507833506619489
https://twitter.com/SharpFootball/status/1824976954409271643
As for the Saints, well, New Orleans has Chris Olave and a whole lotta nothing else as far as weapons for Derek Carr to throw to. Carr also gets sloppy with his footwork and skittish when the pocket collapses. Can't say I have a ton of faith in the Saints' o-line. They drafted Taliese Fuaga in the first round to move from right to left tackle. They're converting their first-round bust left tackle, Trevor Penning, to the right side. They signed atrocious ex-Bears center Lucas Patrick to kick over to left guard. All this according to their latest
Ourlads depth chart. Carl Granderson is their only formidable pass-rusher, too.
Why are
the Saints only +380 to win the NFC South on DraftKings, just behind Tampa Bay at +350? I haven't the slightest clue. My only lean would be toward the Under after Week 1 if they beat the Panthers at home. Otherwise, I'm having a harder time making sense of the hype around them as any team in the NFL. New Orleans is pro football's no man's land in perpetuity.
https://twitter.com/garlandgillen/status/1824460158220603752
Finally, the 49ers. Christian McCaffrey was slowed in camp by a calf injury. The Brandon Aiyuk soap opera is still yet to be resolved. Elite left tackle Trent Williams won't report to the team amid his own contract spat. Expectations and pressure are immense. Although the 11.5 wins line seems high to me given all the drama surrounding the team and their demoralizing defeat in the last Super Bowl, I can't exactly write off the Niners. It's just that, they've gone 11-1 in the division over the last two seasons (6-0, 5-1) en route to 13 and 12 wins respectively. Replicating that for a third straight year is a tall order.
Last note on San Francisco: They enjoyed extraordinary injury luck en route to 12 wins in '23. Not wishing ill on anyone, but that doesn't tend to hold true year-to-year. The Niners have too much talent to bet against,
and too many red flags for me to bet them with supreme conviction.
https://twitter.com/DonAtkinsonNFL/status/1756118838138036517
